Americans’ Dementia Cases Forecast to Double by 2060, Study Finds

Findings show that Americans’ risk of developing some form of dementia after age 55 stands at 42 percent.

A doctor looks at a PET brain scan at the Banner Alzheimer's Institute in Phoenix, in an undated file photo. Matt York/AP Photo

An estimated 1 million Americans are expected to develop dementia annually by 2060—roughly double today’s numbers—researchers said in a Jan. 13 report, adding that the risk of developing the neurological condition may be higher than previously thought.

The researchers’ study, published in Nature, found a higher lifetime risk than previously thought: After age 55, people have up to a four in 10 chance of eventually developing dementia if they live long enough.

Previous studies estimated that about 14 percent of men and 23 percent of women would develop some form of dementia in their lifetime. The new study evaluated updated data and tracked the heart health and cognitive function of about 15,000 older adults over several decades.

“All of our research suggests what you do in midlife really matters,” Dr. Josef Coresh of New York University’s Langone Health, who co-authored the study, said.

The latest findings show that Americans’ risk of developing some form of dementia after age 55 stands at 42 percent, more than double the risk reported in older studies. The lifetime risk of developing dementia rises to more than 50 percent among those who reach age 75, the researchers found.

They also noted that the increase in cases is directly tied to the aging U.S. population.

“That dementia risk translates into an estimated half-million cases this year, rising to a million new cases a year by 2060,” researchers said in a New York University statement.

The study noted that a high risk of developing dementia is also linked to high rates of diabetes and hypertension, an unhealthy diet, lack of exercise, obesity, poor mental health, and genetic factors.

“The expected rise in dementia cases is partly tied to the facts that a progressive decline in brain function is often observed starting in middle age, that women overall live longer on average than men, and that about 58 million Americans are now over age 65,” Coresh said in a statement. “Our study results forecast a dramatic rise in the burden from dementia in the United States over the coming decades, with one in two Americans expected to experience cognitive difficulties after age 55.”

Other Key Findings

Only 4 percent of people developed dementia between the ages of 55 and 75, which Coresh identified as a key 20-year window for protecting brain health. Among those who survived common health threats until age 75, the dementia risk increased to 20 percent by age 85 and 42 percent between ages 85 and 95.

Overall, the lifetime risk of developing dementia after age 55 was 35 percent for men and 48 percent for women, the researchers concluded.

The study also found that black Americans had a slightly higher risk (44 percent) than white Americans (41 percent).

“The pending population boom in dementia cases poses significant challenges for health policymakers in particular, who must refocus their efforts on strategies to minimize the severity of dementia cases, as well as plans to provide more healthcare services for those with dementia,” Coresh said.

Researchers suggested that some individuals may be able to delay or avoid health problems that contribute to dementia.

Dr. James Galvin, an Alzheimer’s specialist at the University of Miami, encourages people to exercise, maintain a healthy weight, and manage blood pressure, diabetes, and cholesterol levels.

Galvin wasn’t involved with the new study but said the findings fit with other research.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.