Real Driving Forces Behind the COVID Waves

COVID waves seem to be unpredictable. What are the driving forces behind these waves?

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Health Viewpoints

“Stay 6 feet apart.” This unforgettable slogan was one of the first recommendations implemented when the world announced the first COVID-19 wave.

As the mysterious virus appeared and quickly spread throughout the world, countries sealed their borders, schools closed, travel was restricted, and people started working remotely. We were told to wear masks, social distance to “flatten the curve,” and get vaccines promoted as being “safe and effective.”

The COVID-19 waves have come and gone approximately seven to eight times during the last three years until May 2023, when the public health emergency and the national state of emergency for COVID-19 were officially declared over. What we experienced during that time will be etched in our minds forever.

Among a number of public health measurements taken during the COVID-19 pandemic, which factors affected the COVID waves? Social distancing? Masks? Vaccines? Or something else?

Researchers have analyzed these factors to determine their effectiveness.

Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

Many people attributed a reduction in COVID-19 cases to nonpharmaceutical health policies.

These included travel restrictions, stay-at-home orders, mask mandates, school closures, and social distancing measures. Since they have nothing to do with pharmaceuticals, they are classified as nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

However, a number of studies disagree and couldn’t find clear evidence that these interventions contributed to the decline in each COVID-19 wave.

For example, in terms of mortality, fatal cases were declining before the full United Kingdom lockdown on March 24, 2020.

A systematic review of 32 studies conducted in Europe and the United States concluded that lockdowns during the spring of 2020 had no substantial effect on reducing COVID-19 mortality.

A study that analyzed data across 169 countries covering 98 percent of the world population from Our World in Data between July 1, 2020, and Sept. 1, 2021, also did “not find substantial COVID-19-related fatality-reducing effects of the ten NPIs under investigation.”

A Nature study found no evidence that Japanese school closures significantly reduced the number of COVID-19 cases in the spring of 2020.

A randomized controlled study in Denmark indicated that mask use did not significantly reduce the infection rate compared to the control group.

A newly published 2024 study analyzing COVID-19 data in six European countries (Ireland, the UK, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland) found no clear evidence indicating that NPIs effectively altered the course of the pandemic in these countries, despite common misconceptions about them.

Impact of COVID-19 Vaccine

Many have been forced to comply with overwhelming vaccine mandates, and the impact of vaccination on the pandemic has been extensively researched.

Vaccination recommendations started for people at high risk and now include everyone, even children. Initially, the expectation was to stop the virus from spreading. Later, the authorities admitted to the public that it was still possible to get COVID-19 after vaccination. We were later told it was important for reducing hospitalization rates.

Despite early promising results from clinical trials indicating significant effectiveness, it’s essential to consider that these findings were based on a relatively small number of COVID-19 cases in the vaccine trials.

For instance, the Pfizer/BioNTech trial had 43,548 participants, but only 170 confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 cases were identified across both the vaccinated and placebo groups. Although the relative risk reduction was reported as 95 percent, this was calculated from a modest sample size exerting little impact on the whole patient population, raising major questions about the reliability of the conclusions.

Countries such as Israel and the UK were leaders in rolling out vaccine campaigns during the pandemic. Yet the same nations have frequently faced new waves of the virus, often driven by emerging variants.

The previously mentioned study on six European countries concluded that despite initial high hopes, there was no clear evidence that the vaccine altered the course of the pandemic.

Impact of Seasonality

A 2021 Nature study shows that higher temperatures and higher relative humidity have consistently adversely impacted COVID-19 transmission across large geographic areas.

The European six-country study, while dismissing the role of NPIs and the vaccine in the COVID waves, concluded that the patterns of COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and the number of people in intensive care units were surprisingly consistent, forming a visible seasonal pattern.

SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to behave like other respiratory viruses—peaking in mid-winter and having a very low incidence during the summer.

A study on the survival of SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces found that the virus survives better in colder and drier environments.

Airborne transmission plays a significant role in spreading SARS-CoV-2. In winter, when the air is usually drier and colder, the virus is more likely to survive and spread easier.

The survival of other coronaviruses also depends on temperature and humidity, showing a clear seasonal pattern.

While seasonal patterns are a driving force behind the COVID waves, they are just one piece of the puzzle and not the entire picture.

Another Surprising Factor

There have been many unknowns with this microscopic virus that remain a mystery.

A breakthrough study in Japan published in Nature revealed an unexpected finding about the COVID-19 pandemic: how people’s changing behaviors, like isolation, might have influenced the virus’s evolution.

The researchers used detailed clinical data and complex mathematical models to understand the viral behavior during the past four years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It was found that as the virus mutated into the Delta variant, the newer strains displayed higher and earlier peaks in the viral load within the body. However, the infection duration was relatively shorter.

This suggests that the virus mutates to become more transmissible, which counteracts the measures people take, such as self-isolation.

Researchers discovered that the virus transitioned from having a shorter incubation period to being more infectious without showing symptoms. A typical example of this is the Omicron variant.

This is the virus’s way of adapting to human behavior; it is intelligent and appears to know how to outsmart human intervention.

It’s not surprising that even the most intelligent scientists and virologists cannot predict mutations, as we have seen with recent strains like HV.1 and JN.1.

Unfortunately, this has resulted in a challenging battle between viruses and human intervention, and the variants’ microscopic tricks appear to be far superior.

Human Behavior Matters

There are other factors related to human behavior that are often ignored yet may be fundamental to driving COVID-19 waves.

In modern health care, Western medicine often fails to address the human soul, including a decline in moral values and behavior, which is linked to the root causes of disease.

Intriguingly, not everyone succumbs to viruses, even during a pandemic. This fact has been evident since the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak and has been further supported by recent COVID-19 human challenge studies. Many participants who were exposed to the virus remained infection-free.

This phenomenon points to the extraordinary capabilities of our God-given natural immunity. The real frontline where the battles between viruses and humans take place is at a microscopic level—our natural defense system, including mucosal epithelial cells on the surface of our nose, lungs, and gut.

A remarkable link exists between our thoughts, moral values and behaviors, and our body’s ability to fight viruses on this battlefield.

It’s not only about nutrition and exercise; our mental state also plays a crucial role. Science has shown that emotions such as stress, anxiety, and fear can impact our biochemistry.

Furthermore, our body, mind, and spirit interplay with each other. Positivity and purposeful living can actually boost our immune response.

A study reveals that striving for compassionate, noble goals can supercharge our body’s virus-fighting abilities. Honesty isn’t just a virtue, it strengthens our immunity by lowering stress hormones.

Embracing a positive, purpose-driven life can not only fill us with joy but can also arm us against illness. Traditional wisdom meets modern science—kindness, altruism, and calmness aren’t just good for the soul; they’re secret weapons for staying healthy.

A pivotal driving force for the virus waves may not be external but something within ourselves. In other words, our behaviors and values may have contributed to the spread of the virus.

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times. Epoch Health welcomes professional discussion and friendly debate. To submit an opinion piece, please follow these guidelines and submit through our form here.