Social Security Payments Set to Increase by 2.5 Percent Next Year, New Estimate Shows

Tens of millions of Social Security recipients also received a 2.5 percent increase in 2025.

Blank Social Security checks are run through a printer at the U.S. Treasury facility in Philadelphia, Pa., on Feb. 11, 2005. William Thomas Cain/Getty Images

The annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income payments is forecast to be 2.5 percent next year, according to an estimate released Wednesday.

Based on the federal government’s inflation data, Social Security checks will go up by 2.5 percent in 2026, according to an estimate from The Senior Citizens League. That is up from the 2.4 percent that was forecasted in May.

Notably, tens of millions of Social Security recipients received the same boost—2.5 percent—to their 2025 payments.

“Seniors should be concerned as inflation continues to tick upward. [The Senior Citizens League’s] research shows that there’s a serious disconnect between the inflation the government reports and the inflation that seniors experience every day. If the government tells us that prices are rising faster, it’s likely that seniors are already feeling the crunch,” said the group’s director, Shannon Benton, in a statement on Wednesday.

The COLA for next year’s payments is usually determined in October by calculating the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August, and September, according to the Social Security Administration.

More than 72.5 million people receive either Social Security or Supplemental Security payments every month, the agency says.

In her statement, Benton also suggested that there should be few changes made to how the consumer price index is carried out because it may impact seniors’ livelihoods, responding to reports indicating fewer businesses are being surveyed by the Labor Department.

“While streamlining the federal government is a good thing, that shouldn’t involve cutting back on our ability to measure how our economy is changing. Inaccurate or unreliable data in the CPI dramatically increases the likelihood that seniors receive a COLA that’s lower than actual inflation, which can cost seniors thousands of dollars over the course of their retirement,” she said.

It comes as the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday that the consumer price index that measures inflation went up 0.1 percent last month after rising 0.2 percent in April. In the 12 months through May, the CPI advanced 2.4 percent, it found.

Inflation in the core consumer price index, which omits the volatile energy and food categories, was unchanged at 2.8 percent, according to the Labor Department’s figure.

All of last month’s readings came in below economists’ expectations.

“Shelter and energy are going to keep the disinflation trend intact—prices are moving down in two of the largest categories,” Jamie Cox, a managing partner for Harris Financial Group, wrote in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

Responding to the latest inflation figures, President Donald Trump called them “great numbers” in a social media post and said the Federal Reserve should slash interest rates. The current rate stands in the range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent, while the Fed has said it is intent on bringing inflation to around 2 percent.

“Fed should lower one full point,” Trump said on Wednesday. “Would pay much less interest on debt coming due. So important!”

Trump also said that a U.S.-China trade deal was completed, although duties on Chinese imports would still be higher than they were in January when Trump took office. The announcement comes following days of negotiations in London between the U.S. and Chinese delegations.

“Our deal with China is done, subject to final approval from President Xi and me,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Reuters contributed to this report.