Retired Americans enrolled in Medicare’s Part D prescription coverage could see their premiums increase by 42-57 percent in 2024, a new analysis by HealthView Services has found.
Major Discrepancy in Premium Outlooks
The HealthView report, published in November 2023, contrasts sharply with a July projection by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the federal agency that administers the Medicare program,
The CMS said there would be a 1.8 percent decline in Part D premiums for 2024, citing the Inflation Reduction Act’s reforms as the basis for stable or reduced costs.
However, HealthView tells a different story. It forecasts major hikes for retirees in states with large senior populations.
Projected 2024 premiums are $1,404 in California, $1,246 in Florida, $1,154 in Texas, $1,469 in New York, and $1,189 in Pennsylvania. This represents average increases ranging from $269 in Texas to $510 in New York.
What is Driving the Increase?
The key driver of projected premium hikes is a change in the Inflation Reduction Act lowering the maximum out-of-pocket spending cap for Medicare Part D prescription drugs from $7,050 in 2023 to $2,000 in 2025. This will reduce co-pays for some, especially those with chronic conditions.
However, financial liability will shift to insurers expected to cover 60-80 percent of costs once patients hit the new $2,000 cap.
With roughly a quarter of Medicare recipients exceeding this threshold, HealthView analysis suggests carriers will raise premiums to account for their increased coverage requirements. The higher premiums are a way for insurance companies to cover the expected increase in costs.
So, while the Inflation Reduction Act aims to lower overall healthcare costs for retirees, it may actually increase 2024-2025 Part D premiums for 75 percent of enrollees seeing no co-pay relief.
Why It Matters?
Americans pay for prescription drugs over 2.5 times more than other high-income nations. One in five seniors alter medication use due to high prescription costs, a May 2023 national survey found. They either skipped, delayed, took less medication, or took someone else’s medications.With health costs a top concern for retiring Americans, the HealthView analysis shows 2024 increases could outpace the average retiree’s Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) by 70 percent. For those on fixed incomes, outpacing COLA adjustments poses real financial challenges.
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