US Life Expectancy Ranking Will Drop to 66th by 2050, Study Says

More than 260 million people in the country could be overweight or obese by 2050, leading to diseases, it said.

File photo of an obese person. Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images

The United States is set to fall in worldwide life expectancy ranking by mid-century, with widespread obesity adversely affecting people’s health, according to a recent study.

The peer-reviewed study, published in The Lancet on Dec. 7, forecasted the life expectancy for Americans between 2022 and 2050 after taking into account the effect of more than 350 diseases and injuries.

Study authors said overall life expectancy is projected to increase from 78.3 years in 2022 to 79.9 years in 2035, and to 80.4 years in 2050. The study said the increase “is forecasted to be modest compared with that in other countries around the world.”

As a result, the United States’ global rank in terms of life expectancy is projected to decline from 49 in 2022 to 66 in 2050 among 204 nations and territories. In addition, ranking in terms of health-adjusted life expectancy, which estimates the average number of years a person lives in good health, is projected to fall from 80 to 108.

Despite the slight increase in life expectancy, health improvements are expected to slow down in the nation as a result of obesity issues, according to professor Christopher J.L. Murray, co-senior author of the study and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

Rising obesity rates are a “serious risk factor to many chronic diseases and forecasted to leap to levels never before seen,” he said a Dec. 5 statement from the institute.

“The rise in obesity and overweight rates in the U.S., with IHME forecasting over 260 million people affected by 2050, signals a public health crisis of unimaginable scale,” he added.

Researchers estimated that if authorities succeed in eliminating risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, and high blood sugar by 2050, the United States will succeed in preventing the deaths of 12.4 million people.

Life expectancy ranking of American females is forecast to drop from 51 in 2022 to 74 in 2050. For men, the ranking is expected to fall from 51 to 65.

“These lower rankings put the U.S. below nearly all high-income and some middle-income countries,” the institute said.

Researchers pointed out that the findings “highlight the alarming trajectory of health challenges in the USA, which, if left unaddressed, could lead to a reversal of the health progress made over the past three decades for some US states and a decline in global health standing for all states.”

Between 1990 and 2021, mortality rates for several leading causes of death, such as stroke, cancer, and ischemic heart disease, declined nationwide, which caused life expectancy to improve during those three decades.

The study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Chronic Obesity

The study’s categorization of excess weight as a key risk factor to good health comes as the United States is facing an obesity crisis.

More than two in five American adults are obese, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which estimates that more than 100 million Americans are obese and more than 22 million have severe obesity.

Obesity rates have skyrocketed over the past decades, jumping from 30.5 percent in 1999–2000 to nearly 42 percent during 2017–2020, with rates of severe obesity almost doubling.

“Many adults with obesity have other serious chronic diseases. For example, 58 percent of U.S. adults with obesity have high blood pressure, a risk factor for heart disease. Also, approximately 23 percent of U.S. adults with obesity have diabetes,” the agency says.

During a hearing in December 2023, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) highlighted the issue of obesity among children, pointing out the link between having excess weight and getting diagnosed with type 2 diabetes.

The senator called for banning the advertising of junk food targeting children, saying that such a move could aid in reducing obesity rates among kids.

“For decades, we have allowed large corporations in the food and beverage industry to entice children to eat foods loaded with sugar, salt, and saturated fat,“ he said. ”This situation has led to an addiction crisis, with ultra-processed foods being as addictive as alcohol and cigarettes.”

In August, former President Donald Trump, now the president-elect, said that he plans on setting up a panel of experts to investigate the reasons for surging childhood health issues, including obesity.

In a video from September, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s nominee to head the Department of Health and Human Services, said chemicals in the soil and ultra-processed foods as contributing factors to the country’s obesity situation.

The United States’ food supply is “loaded with high fructose corn syrup and seed oils and hundreds of artificial additives and flavors and processed carbohydrates that don’t exist in nature and that are banned in other countries,” Kennedy said.